Last Minute Packers vs Giants Prediction

Green Bay Packers vs New York Giants – Running the Table over the New York Pass Defense

   Aaron Rodgers looked like he was declining and no longer the best QB in the NFL ever since the Denver game last season.  Then, after they lost to Dallas, Rodgers went on a tear.  In 11 games, he posted a 110.8 passer rating (league average is 87.6) which featured running the table and winning their final 6 games of the regular season resulting in some high quality memes.

fa906wx

 The last streak of games allowed the Pack to have the 4th rated offense point wise (27 points per game) as well as a weighted DVOA of 12.9%, 7th in the league.

   New York had a different type of season.  Their offense was below average, having an offensive DVOA of -6.4%, and scoring 19.4 points per game, the 7th worst in the league.  Odell Beckham had a down year (which is funny how 1300 yards and 10 TD is a down year for him) and Eli threw for 16 interceptions which is a pretty high number (even higher when you consider he has around a 3% chance of his pass being intercepted).  However, the NY Defense is one of the absolute best.  They rank #2 in defensive DVOA (-15.0%, highest rated defense in the playoffs), are 4th in interceptions and have an incredible run defense allowing the 3rd least yards by opposing rushers.

   One other thing to note is both these teams already played earlier this year, with Green Bay winning, even when Rodgers played a pretty bad game (65 passer rating that game, worse than Brock Osweiler’s average).  The secondary New York has is absolutely incredible in all facets, but it’s worth noting that during that 11 game streak Rodgers went on, he played against Seattle and Vikings, both of which have great secondaries and posted a passer rating of greater than 100.  Granted, the Green Bay secondary is nothing to write home about.  They have given up the 4th most passing yards in the league, meaning Eli can pass for a lot of yards.  Yet, that Packers secondary has racked up the same amount of interceptions that New York has, putting Eli into a role similar to Favre in the playoffs, decent amount of yards but also a decent number of interceptions.

   Final Predictions: Packers 24, New York 21 with Eli throwing 3 interceptions and Patriots fan everywhere breathing a little easier.

Advertisements

Leave a Reply

Fill in your details below or click an icon to log in:

WordPress.com Logo

You are commenting using your WordPress.com account. Log Out / Change )

Twitter picture

You are commenting using your Twitter account. Log Out / Change )

Facebook photo

You are commenting using your Facebook account. Log Out / Change )

Google+ photo

You are commenting using your Google+ account. Log Out / Change )

Connecting to %s